After the end of the Rhodesian State 1980 and the victory of Mugabe's ZANU troops from other independence movements, was the former guerrilla leader to about to install a repressive system that ruined his people and disenfranchised. 2010 disclosed Wikileaks documents - specifically, a report by Christopher Dell, U.S. ambassador to Zimbabwe, from 2007 - show how the U.S. determine the situation.
For over 20 years, we read in the Western press the expropriation of white farmers by Mugabe's henchmen and the resulting agony of agriculture, animal husbandry and tourism. Mugabe reportedly serious condition, reported in late January 2011 in the media, should be cause for looking into Zimbabwe.
is interesting that Mugabe's land reform, and elsewhere in Africa - is brought against open or covert sympathy, not only thousands of white farmers were killed, but also black rural residents - for example in the bud in Namibia and South Africa. Ambassador Dell writes: "While thousands of white farmers saw their properties seized, hundreds of thousands of dog black Zimbabweans lost their livelihoods and were reduced to utter poverty . "
In its letter Dell to state that Mugabe has survived as long as political because he was cunning and ruthless than any of his domestic opponents and he regularly manages to be pushing the object in the defensive: " To give the devil his due he is a brilliant tactician and has long thrived on his ability to abruptly change the rules of the game, radicalize the political dynamic and force everyone else to react to his agenda . "
Anders predicts as Dell, is Mugabe's regime since 2007, not under pressure from the ongoing economic crisis and the growing impoverishment of large sections of collapsed. To date, neither a largely ineffective fighting cholera epidemic, with more than 4,000 dead or new inflation record-breaking Mugabe's power. Also ongoing speculation and some credible reports in the media about the fact that Mugabe and his clan are personally involved in illegal transactions - such as in the illegal diamond trade and professional poaching - did not lead to international condemnation. The same is obviously true for the black market in significant and systematic looting police involved Mugabe.
Robert Mugabe "The Old Man "(86)
Dells idea that Mugabe will be ousted by the best that free, equal and secret elections held under international supervision appear unrealistic - even if Dell South Africa's ex-President Thabo Mbeki in the process ascribes a key role. Mbeki has been shown to be significantly as a supporter of Mugabe. Even after the handover in South Africa by Mbeki to Jacob Zuma is not a paradigm shift in terms recognizable to Zimbabwe.
The relations of the former guerrilla organizations ANC in South Africa and Zanu-PF in Zimbabwe, whose thinking is still too much in each case derived from the armed struggle against white governments are to still too narrow. Some African media even suspect that the removal of Mugabe's Zanu by the democratic opposition, or even parts of the population of the governments of South Africa and also Namibia (SWAPO) as the signal of the replacement of the former civil war-winner could be. As the youngest end of Tunisia's autocratic ruler for unrest in Libya and Egypt, as seen also fear other formerly successful guerrilla leaders that sustained economic failure is not more populist "land reforms" regulated may be grounded, but is based on profit and also could lead to their separation.
wife Grace Mugabe (46) Grabbin 'Grace
The U.S. wants to admit South Africa also does not seem to continue to support the ailing regime in Zimbabwe in order to preserve an apparent regional stability - ultimately at the expense of the population in Zimbabwe (" we must guard against letting Pretoria dictate an outcome Which perpetuate the status quo at the expense of real change and reform ").
As the only serious domestic political opponents of Mugabe, who is also suitable for mass production, consider the U.S. obviously opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai ( only player on the scene now with real star quality and the ability to rally the masses. But Tsvangirai is therefore a flawed figure , not readily open to advice, indecisive and with questionable judgment in selecting those around him . "). But he was not in a position to lead the country after Mugabe. On its own force, the opposition to U.S. opinion, not be successful.
Even within Mugabe's organization, there is increasingly critical voices, but contacts of the Zanu Ambassador to note that it no prospect of change is, as long as the "Old Man" remains in power - an almost sounding after the final stage of the DDR formula.
The power he seems to want to give too far - ". his ego and belief in his own infallibility " speak against his now 18 doctorates would seriously encourage him to want to determine economic laws themselves. On the contrary, expects Dell to the fact that Mugabe will fight to the end (" he will not go quietly nor without a fight. He wants to cling to power at all costs "). However, Mugabe is now no longer lived if opponents to him massively oppose would.
is no surprise to note that almost all potential opponents little format, about to throw the rudder, but in the meantime everyone almost viable business men, politicians, businesses located etc. abroad: " They are the opposition's natural allies " .
alternative scenarios are therefore
1) that Mugabe understands that he will relinquish the power needs to be a free man die - what's been portrayed as unrealistic (" The only scenario in Which He might agree to go with a modicum of good grace is one in Which He concludes that the only way to end his days a free man is by leaving State House ")
2) that a presumably bloody civil war breaks out, which pulls the fall of his regime after themselves - even if Mugabe die unexpectedly or be killed or replaced (" a popular uprising would inevitably entail a bloodbath, even if it were ultimately successful; Mugabe's sudden, unexpected death would set off a stampede for power among ZANU-PF heavyweights ... Similarly, some form of 'constitutional. coup 'ie, a change at the top engineered within the framework of ZANU-PF's' legitimate' structures could well prove to be Merely the opening bell in a prolonged power struggle )
3) that Mugabe was an inflatable rule over the capital and a few areas supported and controlled some still profitable key industries, while the country and its people starve without international aid (" that Mugabe concludes he can settle for ruling over a rump Zimbabwe ... the critical forces of the National Reserve Force and CIO and a few key assets - gold, diamonds, platinum and Air Zimbabwe to fund the good times Under this scenario the rest of the country, in. one of the comrade's favorite phrases, could 'go hang' ").
;
It seems high time that neither Mugabe nor him - in supporting forces neighboring countries - ostensibly from ideological motives - Can now hope for a looking away, or even the tolerance of the West - such as other former guerrillas from the ANC to SWAPO. If even the disenfranchisement of mostly white farmers was criminal, it was tacitly accepted in the withdrawn effects on the economic situation of the black majority even more so. With the issue of land reform in southern Africa last again like to "play" and the non-functioning and the serious corruption of the police is also often overlooked - especially when joy events take place such as the FIFA World Cup (albeit under massive array of foreign government and private security forces). Mugabe seems to show how long you can get away with it. It remains to be seen how ill he is and whether he will be able to fully exercise his power further.
Links & Literature
Rhodesia's 1965-80 war
South Africa's wars: against the ANC and SWAPO
Reporters Without Borders (Mugabe as "enemies of press freedom") Hans-Joachim Loew
: In the land of hate. Undercover by Zimbabwe. 2008th
0 comments:
Post a Comment